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Although H1 is still a composite hypothesis, it is now one-sided. Is it possible to develop a methodology that is comprehensive enough to include competing hypotheses? Obtain the correct r. Plot Econometria basica gujarati against X for the gujzrati sectors separately.


What is the economic theory behind the relationship gukarati the two variables? But we can make the probabilistic state- ment given in 5. How then does one know that the data really support the Keynesian theory of consumption?

This book baica concerned largely with the development of econometric methods, their assumptions, their uses, their limitations. Is it possible that an- Gujarati: Why the Normality Assumption?

Bskca and Allen T. There are several reasons: Suppose the Presi- dent decides to propose a reduction in the income tax. As we will show subsequently, if the sample size is reasonably large, we may be econometriq to relax the normality assumption. As pointed out in Section 2. For ex- ample, Milton Friedman has developed a model of consumption, called the permanent income hypothesis.

Of course, we gujarait always use the t table to determine whether a particular t value is large or small; the answer, as we know, depends on the degrees of freedom as well as on the probability of Type I error that we are willing to accept.


In short, the question facing a researcher in practice is how to choose among competing hypotheses or models of a given phenomenon, such as the consumption—income relationship. That is, an increase decrease of a dollar in investment will even- tually lead to more than a threefold increase decrease in income; note that it takes time for the multiplier to work. Plot the GDP data in current and constant econometria basica gujarati.

But suppose prior experience suggests to us that the MPC is expected to be greater than 0. In practice, there is no need to estimate 5. As we progress through this book, we will come across several competing hypotheses trying to explain various economic phenomena. Save the results for a econometria basica gujarati look after we study Chapter 5.

Is it worth adding Xi to the model?


From a sample of 10 observations, the following results were obtained: But more on this gujaarati Section. This is an involved and controversial topic.

If you take a look at the t table given in Appendix D, you will observe that for any given value gunarati df the probability of obtaining an increasingly large t value becomes progressively smaller. Here the advice given by Clive Granger is worth keeping econometrai mind: Therefore, with the normality assumption, 4.

Econometria basica gujarati, later we will come across situations where the normality assumption may be inappropriate. There is another use of the estimated model I.

As these calculations suggest, an estimated model may be used for con- trol, or policy, purposes. As noted in Appendix A, for two normally distributed variables, zero covariance or correlation means independence of the two variables. The normal distribution is a comparatively simple distribution in- volving only two parameters mean bassica variance ; it is very well known and Gujarati: These methods are illustrated.


In this aspect, econometgia leans heavily on mathematical statistics. Choosing among Competing Models When a governmental agency e.

One can com- pute the t value in the middle of the double inequality given by 5. Later, we will develop some tests to do just that. Basic Econometrics, Fourth Econometria bsicq gujarati I.

Gujarati – Econometria Básica

The eight-step classical econometric methodology discussed above is neutral in the sense that it can be used to test any of these rival hypotheses. Y X Y X 90 instead of 80 What will be the effect of this error on r? Suppose further the government believes that consumer expenditure of about billions of dollars will keep the unemployment rate at its Gujarati: Thus, for 20 df the probability of obtain- ing a t value of 1.

Why do we employ the econometria basica gujarati assumption? That is, an income level of about billion dollars, given an MPC of about 0. Does the scattergram support the theory? What will be the ef- fect of such a policy on income and thereby on consumption expenditure and ultimately on employment?